HANDICAPPING
Horse Race Handicapping
with
Winnermetrics
Algorithm Ratings
- Handicapping key 1 is identify prime contenders. Prime contenders are horses with a D2 score below 1.
- Handicapping key 2 is identify secondary and other “live” contenders. Secondary contenders are horses with a CS2 score below 100. Other “live” contenders are horses with a CS2 score from 100 to 120 with at least one additional positive rating.
Handicapping key 3 is identify horses with actual post time odds paying a premium over the R1 score.
Actual races and handicapping explanations
Click on the track name, race and date to see the actual report
Race 3 was similar. Horse 9 was a secondary contender with a CS2 score of 99. The R1 score was 9.6 and the actual odds were 13/1 which was a premium of almost 50%. Horse 9 was another gift as it returned $29.80 to win.
Race 4 was very similar to race 2. Horse 6 was a prime contender with a D2 score of .9. Horse 6 had a R1 of 11.6 and actual odds of 9/1 so Horse 6 was not paying a premium. However, Horse 6 also had the beautiful IMP/LS of 3/4 so was clearly worth a bet in the Fishing Score 10 race. Horse 6 was another gift in an afternoon of gifts returning $21.40.
The gifts just keep on coming with race 5. Horse 4 is a solid secondary contender with a CS2 score of 92 and a R1 of 7.2. The actual odds are 10/1 which is about a 30% premium. That is pretty good especially with the very nice IMP/LS scores of 2/4. This gift returned $23.80.
Race 6 was not playable with a strong favorite. Race 7 had another nice gift for us although there was no premium in sight. Horse 10 was another solid secondary contender with a Cs2 of 98. The Fishing Score was 10 so you really want to be as lenient as possible when picking double digit winners. Horse 10 was very marginal with low odds of only 8/1 and a R1 score of 22.2. The decision to bet Horse 10 was clearly a judgment call. If you bet Horse 10 then you collected $19.00 which is still not too shabby.
Did you notice a win rate of 5 for 11 at Gulfstream? All solid double digit winners? Merry Christmas a little late !
Race 1 started the day off on a good foot. The prime contenders were 1, 3 and 4. Their respective R1 scores were .1, 2.8 and 2.4. Their actual post time odds were 1/1, 6/1 and 8/1 in this Fishing Score 7 race. At this point we have two bets. Horse 3 is just below the desired odds of 7/1, but that is acceptable when the Fishing Score is 7 and 6/1 is a clear overlay. Horse 3 won and paid $14.40 for a very easy pick up.
Race 2 was very similar. The prime contenders were 7, 4, 6 and 2. Their respective R1 scores were 2.7, .6, 1.8 and 10.1. Their respective odds were 5/1, 2/1, 9/2 and 11/1 in this Fishing Score 6 race. Again we are willing to accept slightly lower odds in the slightly lower Fishing Score race. The best overlay is Horse 7 which will pay a premium of about 100% with a R1 of 2.7 and actual odds of almost double that figure. That makes Horse 7 a definite bet. Horse 4 is an overlay, but will pay far too low to bet. Horse 6 is paying a premium of about 150%, but is a marginal bet at 9/2. Horse 2 is paying a slight premium of 10%. Horses 6 and 2 are judgment calls on whether to bet. Horse 7 won the race and paid an acceptable $12.80.
After a few passed races and a couple of losers we come to race 9. The prime contenders are 10, 11 6 and 8 after Horse 9 was scratched. Their respective R1 scores were 1.6, 6.1, 18.9 and 11.3. Their respective actual odds were 9/5, 3/1, 18/1 and 9/2. Does something stick out like a sore thumb? Did you notice the prime contender going off at 18/1 who is paying full value? OMG!! Winnermetrics Algorithm Ratings subscribers were running to the window with this juice bet on a pretty slow day. Better yet, Horse 6 won and paid a day saving $38.80!! Horse 8 ran second and the exacta paid $262.60. Horse 10 ran third to complete a $780.80 trifecta. Boy, are the Winnermetrics Algorithm Ratings good or what?
There was nothing exceptional today and very few betting opportunities. However, there were still a few opportunities that enabled us to bring home the bacon. Aqueduct, race 3, presented an easy opportunity. There were only two prime contenders. They were Horses 1 and 7. It is very important to note the Fishing Score was 3. Horse 1 had a R1 score of 1.1 and Horse 7 had a R1 score of 4.4. Horse 1 was going off at 4/5 and Horse 7 was going off at 6/1. Please remember in a Fishing Score 3 race it is very difficult to get a double digit winner. Therefore, it is more than acceptable to take a little less than the target odds of 7/1. Horse 7 is clearly a “live” longshot as the second choice in the race, a prime contender and going off at a premium on the R1 score. Horse 7 won and paid a very delicious $14.80 !! I can smell the bacon cooking now!
Race 4 at Aqueduct was another opportunity. Horses 4, 7 and 2 were the prime contenders. Their respective R1 scores were -4, 5.5 and 3.7. Their respective odds were 3/5, 7/1 and 7/2. A quick glance tells you there is a great opportunity with Horse 7. Horse 7 wins a pays a smoking $17.00. The bacon is really7 cooking now!
A very profitable day on a day with 26 races ! It really is that easy !
There was only one prime contender in the race, Horse 8. For reasons unknown Horse 8 was going off at 6/1 with a R1 score of 3.5. However, Horse 8 is going off at odds too low to bet, especially in a Fishing Score 10 race. Horses 11, 2,9 and 7 are the secondary contenders. Horse 11 is the actual favorite in the race which helps to illustrate the confusion of the betting public. All four of the secondary horses are going off at odds of 5/1 or less and are, therefore, too low to bet. At this point we look for any other “live” longshot to bet. Horse 5 has a R1 score of 20.8, but is only going off at 9/1 which is far too low to bet in this particular situation. No one should be willing to accept a 50% discount in a Fishing Score 10 race. Horse 1 is next, but has absolutely nothing to suggest it is a “live” horse. Horse 3 has a TVP of 230 which qualifies Horse 3 as “live”. Horse 3 has a R1 of 41 and is going off at 15/1 which is far too low to accept. Horse 4 has the slimest qualifier with an IMP of 1 which is normally not enough to qualify a horse as “live”. However, in a Fishing Score 10 race leniency is the rule. Unfortunately, Horse 4 is going off at very low odds of 15/1n when compared to the R1 of 26.6. It is a judgment call, but in a Fishing Score 10 race you always try for a premium, if possible. Horse 10 has a CS2 of 122 which is definitely on the high side. Horse 10 also has a TVP of 117 which is nice, but nothing to write home about. However, 10 has a R1 score of 47.8 and is going off at 44/1 which is pretty darn close to the odds we want. It is another judgment call, but 44/1 is very tempting in a very confusing race. Horse 6 is a little weaker with a CS2 score of 127 and a R1 score of 35.1. Horse 6 does show some glimmer of hope with an IMP of 2 and Horse 6 has a “1/2″ score of 5 which is perfect. With odds of 40/1 Horse 6 is another judgment call. The good news is Horse 10 won the race at 44/1 and paid $90.40. The top 3 R2 horses ran 3-2-4. Need I say more?
Just how much money does one have to make in a day to call it a success? The 1st at Aqueduct was pretty easy. There were three prime contenders in the race. They were Horses 2,6 and 1 in a Fishing Score 7 race. Horse 2 was the favorite as expected and went off at 8/5. Horse 6 was 5/1 with a R1 score of 6.3 so the odds were on the low side and the odds were below the target of 7/1. Horse 1 was 3/1 and too low to bet. There were no secondary contenders. At this point the procedure is to look for other “live longshots. Horse 5 was the first horse to consider. Horse 5 had a very nice IMP/LS score of 3/2 so Horse 5 was clearly “live”. Horse 5 had a R1 score of 15.2 and was going off at 10/1 which is on the low side, but was still in double digits and well above the target of 7/1. In addition to the nice IMP/LS scores for Horse 5 the best R2 in the race was only 3.2, While it is a judgment call, Horse 5 is generally attractive as a bet. Horse 5 won and paid a decent $22.00. to win. A very nice start to the day! Then the Aqueduct management team remembered it was winter and cancelled the rest of the card. Boo hoo!
I switched to Calder for the second race which was another Fishing Score 7 race. That means an average chance of a double digit winner. The first thing you notice on the tote board is that ugly Horse 7 as a heavy favorite. The R1 for Horse 7 is -5.5 so we expect very heavy betting. However, the R2 is on 2.8 which is pretty high for a big favorite. That spells OPPORTUNITY. Now we have to find that opportune horse if there is one. It is also unusual that there are two other prime contenders with Horses 4 and 1. When you have such a heavy favorite you expect no other prime contenders. That spells OPPORTUNITY again. Horse 4 is going off at 7/2 with a R1 of 3.3 so that is not the opportunity horse. Horse 1 is going off at 5/1 with a R1 of 14 so that is not the opportunity horse either. There is one secondary contender in Horse 2 with a R1 of 10.7 and actual odds of 10/1 so that is a bet. Now to see if there is another opportunity horse. Horse 6 is the next horse in line and just missed being a secondary contender. Horse 6 has the slightest recommendation for being a “live” horse, but is the top ranked Key Factor 2 Horse. That makes it worth looking at R1. I almost fall over when I see R1 is 13.2 and the actual odds are 35/1. Like Pavlov’s dog, I start to salivate. Horse 6 is paying a premium of almost 200% !!! OMG !!! That is what I call opportunity !!! Horse 6 wins and pays $72.20 !!! I wish they would cancel Aqueduct more often !!!
Some days the favorites just keep coming. Today, January 4, 2014, was one of those days! However, all was not lost. There were some double digit winners that were pretty easy spread over most tracks. That is not what was important today. The lesson today was the “1/2″ ratings! The rating itself is very complicated and not worth explaining. The only thing to really know is when the “1/2″ score is EXACTLY 5 then give some thought to betting the horse, but only if it is long. The “1/2″ rating is ONLY for longshots. Today there were several bombers spread across most of the tracks. Many of the bombers today paid in the $40s, $50s and even $70s. Almost every single one of the bombers that won today had a “1/2″ score of 5. It is an oddity of the algorithms that just makes money. Don’t ever forget the “1/2″ rating.
Let’s move on to race 5. Race 5 was pretty simple. Horses 7, 1A and 6 were the prime contenders after Horse 1 was scratched. Their respective odds were 5/2, 5/2 and 9/1. Their respective R1 scores were 3.2, 4.8 and 7.5. If there is any doubt whatsoever about what to do in this situation please send me a contact email so we can clear it up immediately. Horse 6 paid a very generous $21.60. The three prime contenders ran 1-2-3. The exacta paid $124.80 and the trifecta paid $413.00. Could it possibly be any easier?
Race 6 was very similar to race 4 in every respect except it was a claiming race. The analysis is the same. Horse 6 was a strong IMP/LS horse in an otherwise mediocre race. Betting Horse 6 was strictly a judgment call, but could easily have been bet. Horse 6 won and paid $23.60.
Race 7 was won by the top R2 horse which paid an excellent $11.60 to win. Race 8 was won by the top R2 horse which paid $7.40. Race 9 was a loser.
In summary, 5 of the 9 races were won by one of the top two R2 horses in the race. One of those 5 winners paid in the double digits. Three of the remaining races were won by “live” horses at or above their R1 score. They paid $40.20, $21.60 and $23.60. The last race was a loser. Do you believe in WInnermetrics Algorithm Ratings?
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The Streak
“After an amazing Sunday stealing a 51-1 long shot complete credit being given to the algorithms Monday means back to reality and back to work.”
“However, I did find time to place a few bets at Saratoga today. I got home late and decided to check my results along with expected winnings only to be shocked to see NOT A SINGLE WIN! Just when I figured the streak was done at 4 winning days. I saw 3 minutes to post for race 9 at Mountaineer. So, I pulled up the algorithms for that race and really liked the 9 horse along with 8 and 10. This race however had a tough looking 3-5 favorite. So, I play a 5/9/all trifecta and what were those results….. 5 (3-5) wins, 9 (7-1) second, 8 (55-1) third, 10 was fourth. The trifecta paid $365 and THE STREAK CONTINUES! Subscribing to Winnermetrics Algorithms = best $119 investment I’ve ever made. BELIEVE IN THE ALGORITHMS!”
Horsemanfan
“I was very pleased with racing on Tuesday. I Have been working on a $40 original bankroll. I hit 10-1 in race 8 at Finger Lakes, had good…”
“I was very pleased with racing on Tuesday. I Have been working on a $40 original bankroll. I hit 10-1 in race 8 at Finger Lakes, had good IMP and LS and like I have noticed those price horses are going wire to wire , or else out of money. I hit a $36 horse and a $32 exacta for a $1 bet.
Gmoney
“I agree, Haskell Day @ Monmouth Park was very exciting. I have had such a good week using the Algorithms that…”
“I agree, Haskell Day @ Monmouth Park was very exciting. I have had such a good week using the Algorithms that I decided to take the day off and join the excitement @ Monmouth Park. I’ve been somewhat selective in races that I’ve made actual bets on but I enjoyed the new IMP and LS columns. The tote boards were lighting nice and bright all day. LOVING THE ALGORITHMS!”