Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs
The Golden Rule of horse racing is only bet on horses undervalued by the betting public. Simply stated ONLY bet on “live” overlays! If you pick up any authoratative book on the mathematics of gambling you will see there is only one way to win money gambling. You can only place bets that will pay more than your probability of winning. This means at the race track you can only bet horses that are undervalued by the public. Period!
Betting on value horses at the race track can be beneficial because it increases the potential payout for a winning bet. A value horse is a horse that has higher post time odds that the horse’s probability of winning. This means that if the horse does win, the payout for a bet on that horse will be greater than it would be for a heavily favored horse. Additionally, betting on value horses can also help to diversify a bettor’s portfolio and potentially reduce risk.
Fact #1 – The outcome of every single bet of every kind made in the world is controlled by one simple mathematical equation called the Expected Value Equation.
Fact #2 – The Expected Value Equation is:
EV = (Probability of Winning * Amount Won) – (Probability of Losing * Amount Lost)
Fact #3 – There is only one way to win long-term when gambling. The way is to control one of the variables in the Expected Value Equation.
Fact #4 – Winnermetrics gives the bettor control over one variable in the Expected Value Equation.
Fact #5 – Winnermetrics has developed algorithms that, when properly used, gives the bettor control over the probability of winning in the Expected Value Equation. This is what gives the bettor the ability to win long-term.
Fact #6 – No one algorithm works in every race. The correct algorithm has to be identified and used in every race.
Fact #7 – Winnermetrics does all of the work for you!
The expected value equation is a mathematical formula that calculates the average outcome of a certain event. In horse racing, the expected value equation can be used to determine the potential payout of a bet on a particular horse.
The formula for expected value is:
Expected Value = (Probability of Winning x Amount Won) – (Probability of Losing x Amount Lost)
It is important in horse racing because it helps bettors to determine which horse offers the best potential payout for a given risk. By calculating the expected value for each horse in a race, a bettor can make an informed decision about which horse to bet on. Winnermetrics does this for you.
For example, if a horse has a 50% chance of winning the race and the odds are 4/1 on a winning bet then the return is $8 plus return of the $2 bet, the expected value of a $1 bet on that horse would be $1.50 (0.5 x 4) – (0.5 x 1). The smart bettor ONLY wants to place a bet when the expected value is positive. The higher the better. If the same bet with the same expected value was placed 100 times the bettor expects to be ahead $150 for every $100 bet on the one hundred races.
It’s important to keep in mind that expected value only shows potential payout and not necessarily the outcome of the race. It is important to understand that the expected value is your long-term expectation. It ‘s one of the many tools that can help bettors make informed decisions, but it doesn ‘t guarantee a win in any given race. Expected value is a tool that helps you to make a profit long-term.
Horse racing algorithms are mathematical models that use data about past horse races and the horses that competed in them to predict the outcomes of a horse’s future races. These algorithms can take into account a wide variety of factors, such as the horses’ past performance, their jockeys, the conditions of the race track, and even the weather on the day of the race.
The algorithms can be used to generate predictions for individual races, but Winnermetrics predicts each horse’s likelihood of winning the particular race at hand. Winnermetrics uses multiple algorithms because no algorithm is successful in every race.
There are different types of algorithms used in horse racing, such as:
- Statistical models: These algorithms use mathematical equations to analyze data and make predictions. They can take into account a wide range of variables and are used by Winnermetrics to generate predictions for specific horses in specific races.
- Machine learning models: These algorithms use historical data to learn patterns and make predictions. They can be trained to recognize patterns in large amounts of data and can improve their predictions over time as more data is added.
- Neural networks: These algorithms use a layered structure of interconnected nodes, similar to the structure of the human brain, to process data and make predictions. They can be trained to recognize complex patterns in data and can be used for a wide range of prediction tasks.
- Hybrid models: These are combination of different types of algorithms and can also use external factors such as weather, jockey ‘s performance, etc.
Horse racing algorithms can be useful for both professional and casual horse racing bettors, as they can help to identify horses that may be overlooked by the betting public and, therefore, offer good value. However, it’s important to keep in mind that the prediction made by the algorithms is based on the data it has been trained on historical data and not on any insider information and also it’s not a guarantee for the outcome of the race.